ConnectMeasuring the Spoiler effect, 2004
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On Sunday, February 24th, Ralph Nader jumped into the race for President. I've heard a lot of radio hosts claim or at least imply that he might be a spoiler in the 2008 election. So I did some research.
The following table lists the counties in the 2004 election where the difference between the Democratic Vote and Republican Vote was less than the number of votes for other candidates. I'll need to break out how many of those votes were actually for Mr. Nader, since it is a sum of all "other" candidates on the ballot.
| County | John Kerry # | John Kerry % | George W. Bush # | George Bush % | Other # | Other % | Total | Diff D-R % | Diff D-R # | % Spoiler |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chatham County, North Carolina | 12897 | 49.75% | 12892 | 49.73% | 133 | 0.51% | 25922 | 0.02% | 5 | 2660.00% |
| Nelson County, Virginia | 3543 | 49.63% | 3539 | 49.57% | 57 | 0.80% | 7139 | 0.06% | 4 | 1425.00% |
| Penobscot County, Maine | 40417 | 49.22% | 40318 | 49.10% | 1377 | 1.68% | 82112 | 0.12% | 99 | 1390.91% |
| Arenac County, Michigan | 4076 | 49.61% | 4071 | 49.55% | 69 | 0.84% | 8216 | 0.06% | 5 | 1380.00% |
| Mono County, California | 2628 | 49.23% | 2621 | 49.10% | 89 | 1.67% | 5338 | 0.13% | 7 | 1271.43% |
| Peoria County, Illinois | 41121 | 49.68% | 41051 | 49.60% | 599 | 0.72% | 82771 | 0.08% | 70 | 855.71% |
| Danville, Virginia | 9436 | 49.37% | 9399 | 49.18% | 277 | 1.45% | 19112 | 0.19% | 37 | 748.65% |
| Magoffin County, Kentucky | 2843 | 49.72% | 2836 | 49.60% | 39 | 0.68% | 5718 | 0.12% | 7 | 557.14% |
| Sacramento County, California | 236657 | 49.52% | 235539 | 49.29% | 5670 | 1.19% | 477866 | 0.23% | 1118 | 507.16% |
| Niagara County, New York | 47602 | 49.29% | 47111 | 48.78% | 1867 | 1.93% | 96580 | 0.51% | 491 | 380.24% |
| Winneshiek County, Iowa | 5354 | 49.65% | 5324 | 49.37% | 106 | 0.98% | 10784 | 0.28% | 30 | 353.33% |
| Chatham County, Georgia | 45630 | 49.81% | 45484 | 49.65% | 493 | 0.54% | 91607 | 0.16% | 146 | 337.67% |
| LaPorte County, Indiana | 21114 | 49.56% | 20916 | 49.09% | 576 | 1.35% | 42606 | 0.47% | 198 | 290.91% |
| Price County, Wisconsin | 4349 | 49.63% | 4312 | 49.21% | 102 | 1.16% | 8763 | 0.42% | 37 | 275.68% |
| Tensas Parish, Louisiana | 1468 | 49.56% | 1453 | 49.05% | 41 | 1.38% | 2962 | 0.51% | 15 | 273.33% |
| Orange County, Florida | 193354 | 49.83% | 192539 | 49.62% | 2151 | 0.55% | 388044 | 0.21% | 815 | 263.93% |
| Russell County, Alabama | 8375 | 49.82% | 8337 | 49.60% | 97 | 0.58% | 16809 | 0.22% | 38 | 255.26% |
| Nicollet County, Minnesota | 8797 | 49.59% | 8689 | 48.98% | 255 | 1.44% | 17741 | 0.61% | 108 | 236.11% |
| Monroe County, Florida | 19654 | 49.71% | 19467 | 49.24% | 414 | 1.05% | 39535 | 0.47% | 187 | 221.39% |
| Oakland County, Michigan | 319387 | 49.75% | 316633 | 49.32% | 5957 | 0.93% | 641977 | 0.43% | 2754 | 216.30% |
| Suffolk County, New York | 315909 | 49.46% | 309949 | 48.53% | 12854 | 2.01% | 638712 | 0.93% | 5960 | 215.67% |
| Tama County, Iowa | 4487 | 49.85% | 4456 | 49.51% | 58 | 0.64% | 9001 | 0.34% | 31 | 187.10% |
| Prince Edward County, Virginia | 3632 | 49.64% | 3571 | 48.81% | 113 | 1.54% | 7316 | 0.83% | 61 | 185.25% |
| Kittson County, Minnesota | 1333 | 49.70% | 1307 | 48.73% | 42 | 1.57% | 2682 | 0.97% | 26 | 161.54% |
| Conejos County, Colorado | 1894 | 49.80% | 1864 | 49.01% | 45 | 1.18% | 3803 | 0.79% | 30 | 150.00% |
| Fayette County, Iowa | 5185 | 49.89% | 5128 | 49.35% | 79 | 0.76% | 10392 | 0.54% | 57 | 138.60% |
| Fillmore County, Minnesota | 5825 | 49.79% | 5694 | 48.67% | 179 | 1.53% | 11698 | 1.12% | 131 | 136.64% |
| Pine County, Minnesota | 7228 | 49.79% | 7033 | 48.44% | 257 | 1.77% | 14518 | 1.35% | 195 | 131.79% |
| Clay County, Tennessee | 1675 | 49.90% | 1650 | 49.15% | 32 | 0.95% | 3357 | 0.75% | 25 | 128.00% |
| Rensselaer County, New York | 36075 | 49.75% | 34734 | 47.90% | 1705 | 2.35% | 72514 | 1.85% | 1341 | 127.14% |
| Madison Parish, Louisiana | 2334 | 49.95% | 2291 | 49.03% | 48 | 1.03% | 4673 | 0.92% | 43 | 111.63% |
| Benton County, Iowa | 6747 | 49.97% | 6658 | 49.31% | 96 | 0.71% | 13501 | 0.66% | 89 | 107.87% |
| Poweshiek County, Iowa | 5043 | 49.98% | 4965 | 49.20% | 83 | 0.82% | 10091 | 0.78% | 78 | 106.41% |
| Carbon County, Pennsylvania | 12223 | 48.81% | 12519 | 49.99% | 301 | 1.20% | 25043 | -1.18% | -296 | -101.69% |
| Allamakee County, Iowa | 3449 | 48.84% | 3530 | 49.99% | 83 | 1.18% | 7062 | -1.15% | -81 | -102.47% |
| Yellow Medicine County, Minnesota | 2799 | 48.61% | 2878 | 49.98% | 81 | 1.41% | 5758 | -1.37% | -79 | -102.53% |
| Jefferson County, Missouri | 46057 | 49.38% | 46624 | 49.99% | 583 | 0.63% | 93264 | -0.61% | -567 | -102.82% |
| Buncombe County, North Carolina | 51868 | 49.39% | 52491 | 49.99% | 654 | 0.62% | 105013 | -0.60% | -623 | -104.98% |
| Huerfano County, Colorado | 1663 | 48.88% | 1700 | 49.97% | 39 | 1.15% | 3402 | -1.09% | -37 | -105.41% |
| Washington County, Maine | 8391 | 48.47% | 8619 | 49.79% | 300 | 1.73% | 17310 | -1.32% | -228 | -131.58% |
| Calhoun County, South Carolina | 3390 | 49.02% | 3447 | 49.85% | 78 | 1.13% | 6915 | -0.83% | -57 | -136.84% |
| Marshall County, Iowa | 9443 | 49.27% | 9557 | 49.87% | 164 | 0.86% | 19164 | -0.60% | -114 | -143.86% |
| Clare County, Michigan | 6984 | 49.09% | 7088 | 49.82% | 154 | 1.08% | 14226 | -0.73% | -104 | -148.08% |
| Pemiscot County, Missouri | 3381 | 49.68% | 3398 | 49.93% | 27 | 0.40% | 6806 | -0.25% | -17 | -158.82% |
| Latah County, Idaho | 8430 | 48.03% | 8686 | 49.48% | 437 | 2.49% | 17553 | -1.45% | -256 | -170.70% |
| Washburn County, Wisconsin | 4705 | 49.18% | 4762 | 49.78% | 100 | 1.05% | 9567 | -0.60% | -57 | -175.44% |
| St. Landry Parish, Louisiana | 18162 | 49.41% | 18314 | 49.83% | 279 | 0.76% | 36755 | -0.42% | -152 | -183.55% |
| Grant County, Minnesota | 1856 | 48.60% | 1893 | 49.57% | 70 | 1.83% | 3819 | -0.97% | -37 | -189.19% |
| Burke County, Georgia | 4213 | 49.67% | 4232 | 49.89% | 37 | 0.44% | 8482 | -0.22% | -19 | -194.74% |
| Rockland County, New York | 64191 | 48.91% | 65130 | 49.63% | 1910 | 1.46% | 131231 | -0.72% | -939 | -203.41% |
| Sullivan County, New York | 15034 | 48.55% | 15319 | 49.47% | 613 | 1.98% | 30966 | -0.92% | -285 | -215.09% |
| Conway County, Arkansas | 3982 | 49.26% | 4009 | 49.59% | 93 | 1.15% | 8084 | -0.33% | -27 | -344.44% |
| Hot Spring County, Arkansas | 5901 | 48.91% | 5960 | 49.40% | 204 | 1.69% | 12065 | -0.49% | -59 | -345.76% |
| Cayuga County, New York | 17534 | 48.64% | 17743 | 49.22% | 775 | 2.15% | 36052 | -0.58% | -209 | -370.81% |
| Boone County, Missouri | 37643 | 49.50% | 37801 | 49.71% | 602 | 0.79% | 76046 | -0.21% | -158 | -381.01% |
| Manistee County, Michigan | 6272 | 49.23% | 6295 | 49.41% | 173 | 1.36% | 12740 | -0.18% | -23 | -752.17% |
| Perry County, Indiana | 4131 | 49.68% | 4137 | 49.75% | 47 | 0.57% | 8315 | -0.07% | -6 | -783.33% |
| Iron County, Michigan | 3215 | 49.38% | 3224 | 49.52% | 72 | 1.11% | 6511 | -0.14% | -9 | -800.00% |
| Pinellas County, Florida | 225460 | 49.51% | 225686 | 49.56% | 4211 | 0.92% | 455357 | -0.05% | -226 | -1863.27% |
| Marion County, South Carolina | 2071 | 49.40% | 2073 | 49.45% | 48 | 1.15% | 4192 | -0.05% | -2 | -2400.00% |
| Chester County, South Carolina | 5200 | 49.38% | 5205 | 49.43% | 126 | 1.20% | 10531 | -0.05% | -5 | -2520.00% |
| Pope County, Minnesota | 3301 | 49.27% | 3303 | 49.30% | 96 | 1.43% | 6700 | -0.03% | -2 | -4800.00% |
| Monroe County, Pennsylvania | 27967 | 49.64% | 27971 | 49.65% | 404 | 0.72% | 56342 | -0.01% | -4 | -10100.00% |
Ok, so let's break down these numbers. There are 63 counties on this list. 33 of these were won by John Kerry, and 30 were won by George Bush. The total number of counties that I have information about is 3113. So, 30/3113 is .009637. Less than 1% of counties were affected by the "spoiler effect" in 2004. The total number of votes that "helped" John Kerry is 21,722. The number of votes that "helped" George Bush is 17,444. So John Kerry was helped more by the "spoiler effect" overall than Bush was.
Still think Nader's candidacy is going to be a problem? I don't.
